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March 21, 2008

Bear mauled by JPM & Co.

The more I think about it the angrier I get (if I were a Bear Stearns shareholder).  Forced into a firesale, Bear executives sold the firm for a reported $2 per share last weekend.  And that came on the heals of Bear estimating that firm’s book value being worth at least $80 per share.  Now that’s a serious disconnect.  My first question: Mr. Dimon (JPM CEO), could you do us all a favor and reconcile the $72 difference?


My next question: why didn’t the Fed allow other firms to potentially bid for the firm.  I’m sure with all the firepower and deep pockets that Goldman has, they would have submitted an offer.  Instead they allowed JPM to do a deal with virtually no downside risk (to the extent that the Fed would allow for emergency funding) plus the option to purchase the $1.2 billion Bear building if shareholders are to vote down the deal.      


And with such a terrible offer comes a new set of problems.  The New York Times reported in Wednesday’s business edition a new showdown commencing:  a battle between bondholders and shareholders.  One side wanting the deal to go through as to secure the assets from bankruptcy proceeding (bondholders) while the other side wants to breathe life into the equity side of the balance sheet (equity holders).  All while each side trying to buy up as many shares as possible in order to increase their voting power for the upcoming shareholders meeting. 


If you can't tell, count me as one "against" the deal.  In fact, I may buy shares in the open market in the next couple of weeks to get in on the vote.


Stay tuned.

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Conviction List

  • BUY Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS)
    Recent Px: $180
    12 Mo. Target Px: $230
    Goldman Sachs is a "best of breed" firm that prints money like no other on Wall Street. Trading at 9 times next years earning there is no reason to see this stock going lower than recent volatility has suggested. Recent earnings announcement surpassed analyst expectations. I would expect them to continue doing so. Buying in the 160s or lower would be a good buy.

    SELL Bear Stearns Corp. (ticker: BSC)
    Recent Px: $10
    12 Mo. Target Px: N/A
    JP Morgan got a heck of a deal and even felt bad about their initial offering price that they raised the bid from $2 to $10 per share. I guess it always possible that the deal falls apart and other outside bids are submitted but not without losing their building. Its a virtual lock at this point. Therefore, I think its time to look elsewhere.

    BUY Ultra Petroleum (ticker: UPL)
    Recent Px: $78
    12 Mo. Target Px: $100
    Ultra Petroleum's knack for oil and gas exploratory success makes this name a "must have" in the portfolio. This Houston-based firm has interests and business in Green River Basin, Wyoming, and offshore China.

    BUY iShares China 25 (ticker: FXI)
    Recent Px: $145
    12 Mo. Target Px: $175
    Chinese economist have forecasted a 11% growth in GDP for this year...and that comes on the heels of a slowing US economy. One word: "WOW!"

    BUY Dow Jones Ultra 200% Index (ticker: DDM)
    Recent Px: $70
    12 Mo. Target Px: $88
    Goldman superstar Abbey Cohen has predicted that the DJIA will see 14700 this year. With that logic and her call in mind, then consider using the 2:1 magnification etf that is based on the Dow's performance.

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