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March 02, 2007

Cramer's take on Goldman...

Gs_2In light of this week's volatility, I have taken time to reduce the Goldman exposure that many of my clients had.  However, I personally continue to be a heavy holder of the stock.  The people managing the firm are really amongst the brilliant financial minds in the world. 

Will I but Goldman Sachs stock again?  Yes...I may step in (on behalf of my clients) again but at a much lower prices hopefully.  Anyways, here is Cramer's take on GS:

Guesses Abound on Goldman
By
RealMoney.com Columnist

3/2/2007 1:27 PM EST

Has it occurred to anyone why Goldman Sachs (GS) sells at 10 times earnings and not the same 14 times earnings that the much more poorly run Wells Fargo (WFC) sells at?

It's because people think that something's about to blow up at Goldman. Underwritings will stop. It will be long the wrong piece of paper at the wrong time. It is making its money by investing money, and it has to screw up.

Or the mortgage business has gone bad. I am going to write that again: The mortgage business has gone bad.

I find this stuff to be hilarious. First of all, if you want to sell an investment bank with mortgage exposure, sell Merrill (MER) . It's the one that bought low-quality mortgage originators. It's the one on the hook to the bad borrowers who are putting back the mortgages. If anything, you should be long Goldman and short Merrill Lynch, which is the trade I would contemplate if I am that worried about things.

Second, I would caution that just as you don't know what Goldman may be doing with its money, for all you know, it shifted dramatically or is short this paper. You don't have any idea, hence the 10 multiple again. So, if I have no idea, why am I so confident?

Because the Goldman guys are really smart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. I have seen them flub once in 25 years, off a BP deal that they had to buy that went awry. I don't regard the underperforming hedge fund with which they are affiliated as a problem.

I want to buy stocks run by guys I give the benefit of the doubt to that sell at a big discount to others I don't trust as much.

Can it go lower? Anything can go lower. I don't want to think about sidestepping pain here, though. If I did, the one thing I am confident enough from my previous experience is that I won't have the foresight or the opportunity to rebuild my position.

Join me or not, but recognize the valuation is priced for the mortgage business to go away. And it isn't. It is priced just like Merrill, even though it doesn't even own a mortgage broker, let alone a couple of them.

Makes no sense to me.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs.   

My take:  I would agree but he probably has bias built into this comment in that he worked at Goldman Sachs and probably still trades through the firm. 

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