December 24, 2006

Catchup Time!

Greetings!  I hope you are having a great holiday season as I am.  My son Nicolas Maximilian Gonzalez was born.  You can see his website here:  www.nicolasmgonzalez.com .  On the business front I am ready to begin a new year.  Later this week we will be discussing Goldman Sachs Earnings, my predictions for 2007, and my year-end thoughts for 2006. 

As many of my loyal investors know, I am an advocate of following and learning from the big investors/traders: Edward Lampert, Steven Cohn, Peter Thiel (bio-peter_thiel.pdf), Ken Griffin (bio-ken_griffin.pdf), Victor Niederhoffer and Daniel Loeb (bio-daniel_loeb.pdf).  With that said, I have added a new section to the left hand column of this site called Smart Money.  Over the course of 2007, I will spend time investigating their current portfolio, updating their buys/sells by reviewing SEC filings, and attempting to identify their "competitive advantage".  Stay tuned for more. 

Conviction List

  • BUY Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS)
    Recent Px: $180
    12 Mo. Target Px: $230
    Goldman Sachs is a "best of breed" firm that prints money like no other on Wall Street. Trading at 9 times next years earning there is no reason to see this stock going lower than recent volatility has suggested. Recent earnings announcement surpassed analyst expectations. I would expect them to continue doing so. Buying in the 170s or lower would be a good buy. Earnings come next week....let's keep our fingers crossed that they surprise (on the upside, of course).

    SOLD Bear Stearns Corp. (ticker: BSC)
    Bought Px: $4-5
    Sold Px: $9
    JP Morgan got a heck of a deal and even felt bad about their initial offering price that they raised the bid from $2 to $10 per share. I guess it always possible that the deal falls apart and other outside bids are submitted but not without losing their building. Its was a virtual lock at this point. We bought in the mid single digits which afforded a nice 40-50% gain.

    HOLD Ultra Petroleum (ticker: UPL)
    Recent Px:$95
    12 Mo. Target Px: $100
    Ultra Petroleum's knack for oil and gas exploratory success makes this name a "must have" in the portfolio. This Houston-based firm has interests and business in Green River Basin, Wyoming, and offshore China. It is very close to hitting our price target. We recommended it at $78 per share about two months ago. Nice gain.

    BUY iShares China 25 (ticker: FXI)
    Recent Px: $145
    12 Mo. Target Px: $175
    Chinese economist have forecasted a 11% growth in GDP for this year...and that comes on the heels of a slowing US economy. One word: "WOW!"

    BUY Dow Jones Ultra 200% Index (ticker: DDM)
    Recent Px: $70
    12 Mo. Target Px: $88
    Consider using this 2:1 magnification ETF that is based on the Dow's performance. This is like betting on an ETF with steriods.

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  • I am always fascinated by successful entrepreneurs and the wisdom they provide. With that said, I am a big fan of, the Stanford educated, Peter Thiel, founder of Paypal and now hedge fund manager of Clarium Capital, a global macro venture capital fund he launched in 2005. He was an early investor in Facebook and sits on the company's board of directors. He is also an investor in Slide, LinkedIn and Friendster.